I’d like to argue that from China’s strategic point of view, launching a nuclear attack on Sydney Australia could be a move the CCP would implement, if cornered by USA and it’s allies. Australia is difficult to invade, so a missile strike would be a better option. This would make all other nations in Asia think twice before messing with China, plus it’s also the most cost effective strategy. Then, in the aftermath, the over 1 million Chinese diaspora would have more freedom to assert their claims from within Australia.
I’m sure most of you are aware of Thucydides trap, which was popularised by Graham Allison. Where he outlines that throughout history, when a declining great power (USA) and a rising great power (China) were to engage in an intense security competition. 16 times this has happened in history, and out of those 16 times, 12 times the rising power and the established powers went to war.
He starts by using the Peloponnesian War between Sparta (established power) and Athens (rising power). This is just one of copious amounts of historical evidence I turn to, for my predictions and I’ve come to the conclusion that war is inevitable.
The Quad Alliance
Regardless of what people say about the quad, it’s still a formidable force in Asia. And out of the 4 countries listed, Australia is by far the weakest and most vulnerable.
Australia is the furthest away from China, the only country without the ability to retaliate if attacked by China, the weakest economy, the least effective militarily and has the lowest nationalistic fervour.
If China was to be under serious threat by USA and it’s allies in Asia, nuclear weapons can be used in self defence. And no other country would risk nuclear war with China, if Sydney was to nuked.
Sydney is the Heart of Australia
Sydney is by far the most important city in Australia, without Sydney, Australia would lose it’s identity. During WW2 the Japanese managed to get a submarine into Sydney harbour. Considering that China has far more superior capabilities today than Japan ever did in WW2, I’m led to believe that they would have copious amounts more options.
Harbour Bridge and Opera House
Whenever a movie or television advertisement talks about Australia, their go to images are of the Opera house and Harbour bridge.
ASX Australia Stock Exchange
When you think about how insignificant Australia is on the world investing stage, it makes no sense from a Chinese point of view, why we have one. Considering that our ASX relies heavily on the US market, China would cause damage to wall street by eliminating the ASX.
Chinese Diaspora in Sydney
If you have a look at the map below, you can see the main suburbs occupied by Chinese diaspora in Sydney Australia. After looking at this map years ago, I noticed that the wealthiest Chinese diaspora from a mandarin speaking background all seemed to be living outside of Sydney CBD.
- UNSW Uni Students
The Chinese diaspora within these suburbs are mostly of a Cantonese speaking background, lower socio economic status, less likely to have CCP connections and/or be university students. I found this interesting, considering that most cities are usually the most desirable areas to live, with the most expensive real estate.
Knowing how important ”face” and status is within Chinese culture, I’d just assume that most Chinese would like to flex their financial weight, by taking up prize locations right in the heart of Sydney CBD, but they clearly were not doing this.
The suburbs in blue are in the city centre, while the rest of the Chinese suburbs are in red and outside of the city. Another thing you’ll notice about the map, is that the suburbs seem to make an almost perfect half circle around Sydney CBD.
Chatswood is Headquarters of the CCP in Sydney
During the 1980’s under the skilled migration act, Cantonese speaking people from Hong Kong started immigrating to Sydney and a large percentage moved to Chatswood.
In 1997 Hong Kong was handed over to China and people who feared Chinese rule, were given the chance to move to Australia. A large percentage of them were mandarin speaking Hong Kong people who, in my opinion were mostly agents for China.
Soon after moving to Chatswood, they set up companies like Huawei’s head office in Chatswood and bank of China. Then Chatswood became a mandarin speaking Chinese dominated area, where to who’s who of wealthy CCP (Chinese communist party) members would want to be seen.
My opinion is, this was never an accident, it was a plan from the beginning and the Australian government was too short sighted to see the consequences of their actions.
This was puzzling to me, when I first saw it.
When you measure the radius from the centre of Sydney CBD to each of the Chinese suburbs. They are all out side of 8.88km from the centre of Sydney cbd. 888 is a lucky number in Chinese culture.
What Nuclear Attack on Sydney Looks Like
There’s a website called ”nukemap” where you can choose a nuclear weapon by the tonnage and see a visual representation of what it would look like. When you look at what a 60kt nuclear bomb would do to Sydney cbd, you can see that every Chinese suburb is just outside the radius.
China has 100 Year plans
Michael Pillsbury wrote ”the 100 year marathon” which is a great read if you want to get a basic understanding on what’s China’s agenda.
My opinions is that this was a long term plan by the CCP since the 1980’s, when you study how China has long term strategies, this fits into this narrative. Chatswood was set up as the headquarters of the CCP and I’ve spent the last 4 years studying Chatswood in depth for that very reason.
Why China Would Use A Submarine
Chinese culture is about making money, not wasting it on wars. For this very reason, I believe the best option would be for China to launch a nuclear weapon into Sydney from a submarine off the coast of Sydney.
In recent years, China has focussed heavily on expanding their submarine capabilities. Submarines have been tracked near Papua New Guinea only last year.
Stories of Chinese submarines popping up right next to US naval vessels without the US navy being aware of their presence, are evidence of the growing Chinese submarine capabilities. And these are the capabilities we are aware of.
Australia is Difficult to Invade
Island nations have been almost impossible to invade, when we look at historical evidence. USA with all their power during WW2 needed to nuke two Japanese cities to win against Japan. It’s the same story when dealing with Australia, when you add the distance between China and Australia, then the fact that we’re an island nation.
I’ve pitched my case enough, I could go into more detail but the law of diminishing returns has kicked in. When you take into account all the factors, I’d say there’s a good chance that Sydney will be the first city China will nuke if a serious conflict was to kick off in Asia.