The Security Dilemma – Asian Geopolitics

A new security pack has been revealed yesterday called AUKUS. Australia, U.K. and USA. This looks like a tighter security deal than the quad (India, Japan, Australia, USA). And it seemed like they coordinated the public announcement of Australia’s new Nuclear Submarine deal for an Asian audience (China).

Back in 2016 Australia signed a 90 billion dollar deal with France to deliver 12 submarines. The French sub deal has been cancelled in favour of a new deal with USA and UK to build a minimum of 8+ nuclear powered submarines.

This now makes Australia only the 7th country in the world to have such a powerful weapon at it’s disposal, the other 6 are India, China, Uk, France, Russia, USA. Considering China only has 3 nuclear powered submarines, this announcement is a big deal.

Global Politics Is Anarchy

The idea that states are the primary actors and there is no higher authority than states in global politics. Sure, we have alliance structures to help each other out, but at the end of the day, it’s a self help system we live in. This means that the only way a state can ensure it’s safety, is to be bigger and more powerful than all of it’s neighbours.

What Does ”The Security Dilemma” Mean?

When a country increases it’s military spending on ”defence”, it’s neighbours see that increase defensive military hardware as ”offensive”. Even though Australia is buying nuclear powered submarines for the purpose of defence and we may well truly believe that. All the other countries, including Indonesia, in our region will see Australia’s new found capabilities as offensive.

This is the security dilemma. One country can never be certain of another countries intentions, even if Australia is arming itself for peaceful purposes, no other country can truly be certain. So instead, countries only focus on capabilities. Therefore, it seems like Australia has deliberately triggered an arms race in Asia.

The Global Times Threatened Australia

global times
China will eventually teach it (Australia) a lesson as a deterrent to others

The global times suggested that Australia has just signalled to every country in Asia, that acquiring nuclear powered submarines are a must to protect themselves (arms race). Which according to the security dilemma, could possibly come true.

You guys who follow me, have seen my theory on this one. I think China will nuke Sydney.

Three-Nation Security Pact AUKUS

AUKUS Australia, U.K and USA

Will Australia Develop Nuclear Weapons?

The other 6 nations who have nuclear powered submarines, are all nuclear nations. India, China, Russia, France, U.K. and USA all have the capability to build nuclear war-heads. Under these circumstances, the natural assumption will be that Australia will become a nuclear power in the not too distant future.

One of the best books on this topic is ”How to defend Australia” by Hugh White. He does ask the question in his book, whether Australia will need to have a nuclear deterrent. I fully recommend you read this book.

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