Today I want to pitch my argument why I believe China will use North Korea as a proxy (at first) to start a conflict with South Korea. Then China will use this event to unify the Korean peninsular under the leadership of Kim Jong-Un. Yeah, I’m well aware that every expert in the world is saying that China will invade Taiwan next, but I’d like to pitch my case why every single China-Watcher is totally wrong (in my opinion).
There has been overwhelming amounts of speculation on whether China is an expansionist country in the past, where the majority of people agreed that China was a peaceful nation that only wants to expand its economy. These so-called experts have been proven to all be comprehensively wrong in their assessment of China’s rise.
2022 USA Stopped Being The Global Policeman
USA pulled out of the middle east in an epic move that seemed to happen overnight, USA seems to be far less interested in anything to do with NATO too, in fact, the United States seems to have almost entirely gone home. America is deployed around the world in fewer numbers than the past two generations.
It’s funny how many people used to complain about the United States controlling the trade routes, protecting every country’s ability to access energy and feed its people. Many people got this totally wrong, they used to call USA a bully, or even a colonial power. These fools are about to realize the hard way, just how important USA has been to global peace.
It’s just a shame these anti-USA fools weren’t educated enough to understand how the world really works.
Geopolitics Is In Play Now – 2022
Countries who replied on the safe passage of their cargo around the world are only just starting to realize that almost everything they trade is possibly under threat from every country their cargo passes by. Without the United States guaranteeing the safe passage of their international trade, each country is currently negotiating with all of their trading partners, hoping to keep globalization going, in a world where USA is no longer there.
If you know anything about human nature or anything about the history of the world, this is not going to end well.
China’s Entire Supply Line Is In Danger Now
In a world without the USA protecting the trade routes, China is preparing to safeguard its own supply lines themselves. This requires them to ensure safe passage out of the first island chain, down through the South China Sea, past Singapore, through the Malacca straights, through the Indian ocean, to the Persian Gulf.
The majority of China watchers out there, and commentators, they all agree that China can solve this problem by simply these things:
- Become a security guarentor for either the Saudis or Iran
- Build a blue-water navy to protect Chinese shipping past the Persian Gulf and the Indian ocean
- Invade Taiwan, which will break up the first island chain and passify the Japanese and Americans
Simple right?…. I don’t think so.
Problems with this idea:
- China just signed a deal to work on green energy with the Saudis. Yeah I know hahaha, what a joke. The point is, China doesn’t have the ability to project power into the middle east just yet, and before they do, Turkey would have filled that void. So, clearly this isn’t something they can do anything about right now, and the Saudis are looking for someone right now.
- China’s blue water navy isn’t powerful enough to deal with an angry India, so this one is off the table for now too.
- If China invades Taiwan, they won’t be able to get rid of enough young men of fighting age, which means that after taking Taiwan, China will immediatelly have internal problems. Not to mention, South Korea has US bases who could take this opportunity to launch some creative problems into China from their bases in South Korea. Lose lose for China
Everyone agrees with one thing, the fact that China is about to go off a demographic cliff, which was caused by the poorly thought-out ”Chinas one child policy”.This means that China has a huge oversupply of men within the country who can easily become a problem internally if something isn’t done about them. If China’s economy starts to slip and these men start to get rowdy, the CCP could find themselves dealing with millions of men protesting in the streets, which could topple the CCP’s hold on power.
So, they have a time limit based on demographics and their faltering economy.
Here’s how bad the demographics are in China right now.
The Korean Peninsula Puts Beijing in Danger
With the United States’ new pacts with sea powers (AUKUS, QUAD) no one in their right mind would think that China could take these allies on in the sea near Taiwan. I’d say this is a huge trap. China has never been a sea power, it’s always been a land power with a large land force.
Also, after the consolidation of Hong Kong recently, the natural next step would be to sort out the Korean Peninsular and make sure there are no serious threats to the Chinese homeland. By launching a huge land force of Chinese men towards South Korea, this would solve multiple problems all at once.
Think about it this way, using all these men up, would make the CCP feel safer in their seats of power, it would also buy them more time to build that blue water navy they need to secure maritime trade routes. Furthermore, it doesn’t even matter if the Chinese take the Korean peninsula, the destruction of South Korean industries that compete with China in the region would help Chinese exports after the war ended.
North Korea would get the blame for the war anyway, that’s the beauty of a good old proxy war. This would give other countries like Russia, the Middle East, Turkey, and a few others an opportunity to cause trouble in other regions of the world which would keep the United States busy too.
The Battle At Lake Changjin
China’s most popular movie right now, I’m so keen to see it, but this movie is still being shown in Chinese cinemas right now. This movie is so popular, that Chinese cinemas has extended it being shown. This movie is about how North Korea invaded the South in 1950, then the allies joined the fight to protect the South Koreans. You wouldn’t believe that the South Koreans were saved by white people like myself these days, considering how badly they treat us.
China could have made a movie about taking back Taiwan, but they strategically chose to make a movie about how the Chinese sent hundreds of thousands on foot to defeat the allies on the Korean Peninsula. In one of the bloodiest battles of all time.
Seems like the CCP is preparing their domestic audience for a repetition of history.
What Could Prevent This Happening For a While
Rcep is the Chinese version of a trade pact between Asian countries, recently the Japanese have taken a leadership role in revamping the CPTPP. There is a good chance that China will be excluded from this trade partnership, which could be a trigger for the CPP getting feisty.
Only time will tell.