Will China launch an invasion on Taiwan in 2021? And, is this purely a political move or is it strategic? I’d argue that this is mostly a strategic move for China to secure their maritime trade, instead of simply a political move to appease a domestic audience. It makes no sense why they would want to kill their own people, and yes, the Taiwanese are mostly of han Chinese decent.
China’s Maritime Trade Security Ended in 2020
The only thing making this a pressing issue for the Chinese communist party is that their economy relies on maritime trade. This is not as much of a domestic issue as the main stream media would lead you to believe. From what I have seen, read and the people I have spoken to, Taiwan would eventually be dissolved under the mainland’s rule peacefully, if they had unlimited time to do so, but they don’t.
Peaceful being similar to what happened to Hong Kong, which wasn’t exactly peaceful. And unfortunately the Chinese economies reliance on maritime trade security will be the main thing driving how soon China needs to take Taiwan.
I personally don’t think that China will invade Taiwan until a multitude of other things have been achieved. One of those things, is South Korea, it’s fa too dangerous for China to launch on Taiwan, when South Korea still has the ability to side blind them from behind.
China has a huge maritime trade dilemma on their hands now that the U.S. has decided the cost of protecting international trade in Asia is no longer worth the money anymore. And sure, China is almost as wealthy as the USA but that doesn’t mean that they have unlimited cash to throw around. China only has limited shots at controlling their maritime trade over the next decade.
China needs to be smart about how they attack this problem.
The belt and road initiative was designed to bring all countries maritime trade routes and the old silk road, in an attempt to redesign the global trading system in China’s favour. Kinda like the old ”all roads lead to Rome” saying. China needs access to the middle east for oil and Europe for exports, all via the sea. Now we have moved into a new period of geopolitics, the sea is no longer safe anymore, so, here’s a few problems they will need to overcome :
Taiwan is about China’s Maritime Trade
- Maritime trade security through the first island chain (Japan, Taiwan, Philippines)
- Secure the militarised islands in the south China sea.
- Take control of Singapore as a friendly and cheap port
- Malacca straits is treacherous due to India’s naval build up recently
- Have safe access to Sri Lankas Hambantota International Port which China leased until 2116
- Secure a strong security agreement with Iran for access to the Persian gulf
First Island Chain Strategy
Taking Taiwan would help them to put a huge hole in the ”first island chain of defence” (as the American military calls it). The chain consists of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.
Japan would be forced to stand down if Taiwan was controlled by the mainland. And China would have a stepping stone closer towards the artificial islands in the south china sea which it militarised back in 2014.
Throughout China’s history, they have been a land power for good reason, their ability to have safe use of the sea has been quite rare. There’s only one time in their documented history that they had a decent navy and this ended up bankrupting an empire.
So, do you think they can just launch a naval attack on Taiwan and secure it without shutting down their economy?
Globalisation ended in 2020
China’s Overpopulated with Men
The data coming out of China is not accurate, but one thing we know for sure, there is definitely far more men than women in China. Some stats suggest that there are 50 million or more men in China, why does this matter?
Well, imagine you were gearing up for a showdown with the west, wouldn’t you prefer to have an oversupply of men at your disposal? This doesn’t take into account all the men of fighting age who currently live in western countries as we speak. Let’s just say, the Chinese communist party has millions of men to throw into a conflict and it won’t damage the country at all, maybe it will help it out.
China’s One-Child Policy
Most of the world is overpopulated, not to mention the aging demography in most western countries. If you think we have demographic problems, imagine how pressing it is in China.
The one-Child policy in China has ruined their ability to remain productive with such an oversupply of elderly Chinese, outnumbering workers by almost 20%. This data may not be accurate, but the principle is.
If the CCP can blame the west and mobilise the Chinese people against some important strategic targets, they will be able to clear out their over supply of men and their oversupply of elderly at the same time. Could the CCP achieve all of these goals simultaneously? Perhaps
No country in Asia is a consumption-led economy
None of the important countries in Asia are capable of self sufficiency, they are all heavily reliant on exports and they are all aging populations. This is a powder keg, just waiting to kick off and the United States is going to try help trigger multiple proxy’s around China, in an opportunistic way. We can discuss this in detail in another post.
Mackinder’s Heartland Theory Affects South Korea
This is something that I’ve been talking about for at least 5 years now. Firstly, South Korea is not a friend of the west and on the other hand, China should never trust South Korea either.
Mackinder’s heartland theory was designed as a European military theory. Quote ”whoever controls the heartland, controls the world island” the world island is Europe. When I think about this very old and simplistic theory about land power, I can’t help but associate this theory with China’s piece of land.
When I think about land power in this context, I can’t help but keep coming back to the importance of controlling South Korea. China only recently took control of Hong Kong, which is connected to the main land. The next step would be to control South Korea, in my opinion. Imagine if China was to be weakened somehow in the near future, South Korea could launch some type of attack on Beijing, to capitalise on this weakness. Not to mention the US military bases stationed in South Korea as we speak.
My conclusion is that China needs to take over South Korea before they can think about taking back Taiwan and Mackinder’s heartland theory is why I think so.
What is the One-China policy?
Is a policy that the Chinese Communist Party and the United States agreed to in 1972 when Nixon visited China in the Shanghai Communiqué. Where America agreed that there was only one China, but it wasn’t clear whether USA agreed that the mainland or Taiwan was in charge. Reducing their military installations in Taiwan was part of the deal.
Is Taiwan a country or not?
Does the US recognize Taiwan as a country?
No, but under Donald Trump they opened ”The American Institute in Taiwan” which is in fact an embassy, with a fancy name. This is a strong sign that US supports Taiwanese independence, but hasn’t announced anything publicly yet.
US Arms Sales To Taiwan
Joe Biden just approved his first arms sale to Taiwan in a $750 million dollar deal. With every arms sale to Taiwan, the dangers for a Chinese invasion increase.
Why China Would Nuke Sydney Australia
This is when I get to my ”conspiracy theory” about China’s plan to nuke Australia. Have a look at all of the hurdles China is going to overcome to secure their maritime trade. All of these hurdles are independent countries who would prefer the United States to remain as the maritime power in Asia, it’s going to be difficult to convince all these countries to co-operate.
If China starts a conventional war with one of it’s neighbours, this is more likely to have the opposite affect by incentivising them to create an ”Asian Nato”. And we all know that the US and Australia would love that to happen.
So, China spends he next decade bribing each country along it’s trade routes? China would become poor super fast if it tries that tactic.
What about intimidation? We’ve already seen China use economic coercion against many of it’s trading partners over the last few years, why not ramp it up a few notches?
This is why I think that sending a submarine down to nuke Sydney city. Would be the type of graphic show of strength that could possibly make every country in Asia step back and think twice about challenging China’s maritime trade through Asia.
And Australia is the only ”white country” in Asia, which would, in a way, be a show of solidarity amongst many of the conservative, aging Asian’s. That could signify the end of America’s involvement in Asia too, because we all know that America will not nuke China if they nuked Australia. So, every other country in Asia will then know that America has not power in the region anymore.
