I remember reading that old book ”irrational exuberance” by Robert Shiller (hopefully I spelled his name correctly). Where I learned that almost all traders are controlled purely by emotions. This seemed insane to me at the time, that Greenspan could same something so innocent and the irrational traders could lose their minds over it.
Then I started to think about every bank I knew. They were all kinda insane, in my opinion. So, it made sense haha. Almost all of those bankers were alcoholics and recreational drugs users. Some seem to be quite intelligent and rational though, but the whole industry is drowned in alcohol and drugs, which creates this hive mind mentality. They all drink together after work, they all agree on everything, they all dress in the same suits. None can really have an original thought, I guess it’s not possible under those circumstances.
It’s amazing to think that these are the people making decisions for retirees etc You’d have to be insane yourself, to think that these people should manage your money. But I guess the average investor thinks the same way as the average banker, all sheep. My chat with Dr Mattias Desmet was so shocking to me, that I’m starting to see mass formations everywhere.
Anyway, the stock market has been going directly upwards for several generations. All you had to do in the past was buy in, hold, hold, hold a little bit longer. Then pull out a profit when you retire, as long as inflation didn’t destroy your purchasing power.
Any fool can make money under those conditions. Which makes sense as to why all the bankers are alcoholics, they never needed to have any superior knowledge or skill under these conditions. And now, as things get tighter in the west, we have a bunch of weak minded bankers that are ill equipped mentally to deal with the coming barrage of crisis’s.
These days may be coming to an end. The west is on the decline and the east is now probably the best spot to buy stocks, but you are not a national there. And as our countries decline, the elites will never allow capital flight out of the country, unless you had the means to protect yourself, but you don’t.
Crypto Market is Volatile
When I look at the crypto market, there’s really only one thing that I keep reminding myself. Volatility. There have been huge booms and then devastating busts. The best strategy is to buy at the absolute bottom and that’s it. Congratulations, you now have everything you need to know about how to become a millionaire by trading bitcoin. Obviously it’s a little more complex than that, there are a few things that I’d like to chat with you about today.
You could buy after ever dip and hope for a bounce, this is a short term strategy many people use.
FOMO And Bitcoin
Warning! If you feel an emotional feeling to buy, simply because everyone else is, you could be buying the top.
These two words when combined in the same sentence can ruin you. Bitcoin has just bounced back with a vengeance to $54k BTC/BUSD overnight. And already people are talking about missing out on social media, people are saying that bitcoin is going to the moon and some have even bought bitcoin recently.
This is FOMO. The fear of missing out. One thing these people don’t realise, is that with most spikes, there’s a correction. So, some of these unfortunate people who have just bought bitcoin at such a lofty price, may regret it soon. They may have to hold onto there bitcoin for years until they can sell again at a profit.
Whenever bitcoin rises in price, this triggers the main stream media into a frenzy of bitcoin stories. As you guys who follow me are aware, I hate the main stream media, this is another reason why. Imagine this, you have some naive people watching the news (also they don’t consume any independent media) and a bitcoin story pops up, talking about all these people buying bitcoin and getting rich.
Considering the average person’s only understanding of investing is the stock market (which only goes up). Then these uninformed people figure out how to buy some bitcoin after watching the main stream media propaganda. Later that month, bitcoin crashes and they lose the vast majority of their investment.
Never buy bitcoin when everyone is talking about it. Especially the main stream media.
The best time to buy is when no one is talking about it anymore. When it seems like bitcoin will never rise again, when you think its totally finished. This is the scariest time to buy, but also the best time too. If you can buy under those circumstances, you can get wealthy when it goes hyperbolic the next time.
HODL And Diamond Hands
Definition of HODL and Diamond hands is ”don’t sell even when it drops to zero”.
- HODL : Hold of for dear life
- Diamond Hands : Hold bitcoin, don’t let go of them.
Another bad strategy. Imagine this. You were one of the very first people to buy hundreds of bitcoin a decade ago. So, when bitcoin hit around %17-$19k BTC/BUSD back in 2017, you had millions of USD in bitcoin at that point, but you decided to HODL. My opinion is, that the best strategy is to sell everything when the price goes hyperbolic like that.
Almost a year later bitcoin was back to $3k BTC/BUSD and you could buy back in again. This is by far the best strategy for the time period we are in at the moment.
Financial Crisis And Bitcoin
At the moment, we are going through a period of economic pain caused by the lockdowns etc. Which is the reason why so many new retail investors are getting into bitcoin. Under these conditions, bitcoin will continue to range higher, due to all the mainstream media attention and new people buying into the market. Most of these people have no idea how volatile the crypto space is, they might even double their investment, if they are lucky, but you don’t get rich that way.
The majority of experienced traders are just waiting for the right moment to pull out and I’d say that moment will come when the global economy opens back up. When people can fly abroad again, when stability returns, that’s when bitcoin will collapse.
Here’s a list of other articles I recommend on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency: